ZPP Newsletter
Warsaw, 26th September 2018
Busometr ZPP Index:
Entrepreneurs in a good mood – record-high Busometr index
In entrepreneurs’ view, the Polish economy is in a good condition. This is indicated by the latest forecasts of the Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers discussed in the next edition of the Busometr Index survey, which had a reading of 56.8 points. This result is 12.13 points higher compared to the results from the 1st half of 2018.
The overall value of the Busometr Index was influenced by the “economic situation” component, which currently stands at 55.4 points. One can see a significant increase here compared to the 1st half of this year (when the value of the component stood 41.75 points). As many as 39% of entrepreneurs are of the opinion that in the months to come the economic situation will improve, while 25% expect it to deteriorate.
It should be emphasised that from this measurement on, the Busometr index is realised using a different business database (previously, this used to be the database of the Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers – ZPP; currently, that of the Ariadna National Research Panel). The sample structure in terms of the size of the companies surveyed in this measurement and the previous ones does not differ, but the demographic structure of the respondents has changed considerably. This change may be partly responsible for the observed increase in indices.
“In the latest edition of the study, we have noticed a very dynamic growth in every indicator analysed as part of the Busometr Index,” comments Cezary Kaźmierczak, President of the Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers. “Perhaps the change in the demographic structure of the respondents has impacted the situation, but undoubtedly the reading results for the 2nd half of 2018 reflect a clear trend: entrepreneurs observe excellent economic conditions and are willing to make use of them, for instance, by investing their money.”
The least concerned about the economic situation in the country, in terms of the next six months, are entrepreneurs from the commerce sector (here the index reached 61.32 points), followed by production and services sectors (59.11 and 51.06 points, respectively).
The value of the ZPP Busometr Index was also influenced by the other two components – the labour market and investments.
Regardless of the size, region, sector or the age of an enterprise, the moods of entrepreneurs in the area examined in terms of the component “labour market (wages and employment)” is at a decent level of 61.9 points. In the case of “wages”, the barometer amounted to 62 points, with 43% of entrepreneurs declaring an increase in remuneration in the near future. In terms of “employment” 42% of respondents plan to increase it.
“The fact that almost half of entrepreneurs plan pay rises, is not at all surprising,” claims Cezary Kaźmierczak. “We are dealing with insufficient labour supply today, entrepreneurs are competing for employees, hence wage increases are natural. Due to the good economic climate and dynamic growth in consumption, companies can afford to offer higher wages.”
A significant increase can also be seen in the “investments” component – the latest reading is at 53.7 points. (increase by 10.24 points with respect to the previous Busometr measurement). As many as 64% of respondents declare that they will invest over the next six months, while 36% of respondents do not plan to invest. Medium-sized and large enterprises as well as enterprises operating within the production sector are most optimistic in this respect (63.1 points).
***
Busometr ZPP – the Index of Economic Mood in SME Sector is an economic barometer illustrating the level of optimism in small and medium enterprises, and their plans for the coming six months.
Three components affect the index: (1) the economic situation, (2) labour market (remunerations and employment) and (3) investments.
A value within the range of 0-100 is assigned to each component.
The Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers along with Maison Research House conduct the research among a representative group of small and medium enterprises (up to 250 employees). Busometr ZPP is published every six months.
Small and medium enterprises constitute in Poland 99.8% of all the companies in the country. They create three quarters of the work places and generate 67% of GDP.
26.09.2018 ZPP Busometr Index. Forecast for 2nd half of 2018
