ZPP Newsletter
Warsaw, 8th January 2020
Commentary by the Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers:
Either we re-open the economy after 17th January, or the crisis spreads to all sectors
The prolonged lockdown and further restrictions may lead to a real economic collapse. On the macro scale, Poland copes relatively well with the economic effects of the epidemic, but a number of industries – those currently subject to special rigors or a complete ban on operations – are in an extremely difficult situation. Maintaining the currently enforced restrictions after 17th January 2021 is associated with the risk of a wave of bankruptcies in the sectors covered by those restrictions and the spread of the crisis also to related sectors. Entrepreneurs will not be able any longer to bear the costs of the unpreparedness of the healthcare system for the epidemic – in the second half of January, we should re-open all industries, while maintaining the DDM rigor.
On 4th March 2020, the first case of the novel coronavirus was diagnosed in Poland. It is, therefore, the eleventh month as companies operate under restrictions, orders and bans, the scope of which is amended every few weeks. We can say with full responsibility that entrepreneurs passed this difficult exam with flying colours: they immediately introduced increased sanitary standards, reorganised their operations, successfully implemented – where possible – remote work, even in the absence of adequate regulations in this area. Some of them are also financially involved in the fight against the virus.
The world of business demanded a quick opening of the economy and the narrowest possible scope of restrictions, but generally followed the standards introduced by subsequent regulations. Thanks to entrepreneurs’ responsible attitude, the government had the necessary comfort to make decisions aimed at enforcing social distancing and isolation.
After almost a year of fighting the pandemic, the situation is quite different. Restrictions and bans that lasted for months have led many entrepreneurs to the limits of financial strength. There is no longer any trace of spring discipline – an increasing number of companies are trying to circumvent, often in highly creative ways, the regulations introduced in connection with the epidemic. No matter how much we advocate abiding by the letter of the law, it is difficult to expressly criticise entrepreneurs trying to survive at any cost. The more so because – unlike last spring – many of them have not received any financial aid yet, despite the fact that they were made subject to new restrictions in October.
Another negative phenomenon is the evident crisis of confidence in the government. The dominant belief is that restrictions are introduced almost at random. No specific argumentation is presented to justify a more restrictive approach to a given sector that they cover. Chaos rules the information policy and the decision-making process – for weeks, new restrictions were announced at the last minute, shy of their introduction. When in November it was decided to somehow structure the strategy to combat the epidemic and present a roadmap for reducing restrictions, the document immediately became obsolete.
At the moment, each day brings reports of a critical situation in new industries. The food catering industry has not been operating normally for almost a year. The fitness industry, although it has learnt to operate under increased sanitary standards, remains completely closed. Regulations regarding stores in shopping centres change every few weeks – immediately after Christmas, many of them were again shut down.
Therefore, it must clearly be said: we have come to a point where it becomes economically too costly to maintain the limits on the economy It would be an oversimplification to say that “Poland is doing just what the rest of Europe is”. Most of the countries that maintain or extend the restrictions are either much wealthier than Poland (e.g. the United Kingdom, Ireland, Germany or France), or are in a much worse epidemic situation (e.g. the Czech Republic). Meanwhile, despite the impressive economic progress, (compared to other Europe countries) we are still relatively poor and, only thanks to social discipline, we managed to stop the uncontrolled increase in the number of infections. Continuing the policy of opening and closing industries on the basis of factors that are difficult to determine may result in us squandering a large part of the achievements from the last three decades.
Considering all the above, the Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers appeals to the Prime Minister and the Minister of Health as well as the team supporting them to unlock all industries after 17th January 2021. Maintaining restrictions will be associated with the risk of a real crisis and a wave of bankruptcies covering almost all sectors of the economy. We must return to our normal lives. A manifestation of this necessity is the announcement of primary school children in grades 1-3 going back to school. Since we are discussing the transition of some pupils to classroom teaching, we should also make bold decisions in terms of opening subsequent industries.
Fot. denisismagilov / Adobe Stock
