ZPP Newsletter
Warsaw, 20th January 2020
Serious symptoms of an economic slowdown. Record low investment indicator
The index measuring entrepreneurs’ mood “Busometr” for the second half of 2020 amounted to 44.5 points (a decrease from 48.8 points in the previous half year), which means that the mood of entrepreneurs continues to deteriorate. A decrease in mood among companies took place in all components measured (the economic situation, labour market, and investments). The level of investment sentiment reached the lowest level in the Index’s history. Despite the decrease, entrepreneurs show relative optimism regarding the situation on the labour market.
Over the last three half-year periods, the sentiment of entrepreneurs surveyed has been deteriorating. In the first half of 2020, micro-enterprises remain the most pessimistic (index amounted to 41.3). Moods improve as the size of the surveyed enterprise increases. Younger companies, operating on the market for no more than 5 years, also have a higher optimism index. Entities in central Poland show the worst moods. Companies in the northern part of the country look to the future most optimistically.
“After a record-breaking optimistic second half of 2018, we have seen a consistent decline in sentiment among entrepreneurs for three consecutive editions of the survey. These are undoubtedly symptoms of an economic slowdown in Poland. In the area of investment, we pay the price for the communication chaos generated by the government and hasty, enforced out of the blue regulations,” comments Cezary Kaźmierczak, president of the Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers.
The spirits are still highest in the manufacturing industry (index amounted to 49.3). The mood is worse in trade (45.4) and services (43.2). It should be pointed out that only a measurement exceeding 50 points indicates a positive trend in the evaluation of a given component.
Polish companies continue to positively assess the situation on the labour market. The value of the index in this component reached 55.8 points and only recorded a slight 1.3 points decrease compared to the previous half year. Interestingly, the percentage of both companies planning raises (29% compared to 25% in the previous half-year) and those that plan to reduce remuneration rose (6% compared to only 2% of companies in the second half of 2019).
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Busometr ZPP – the Index of Economic Mood in SME Sector is an economic index showcasing the level of optimism in small and medium enterprises, and their plans for the next six months.
Three components affect the index: (1) the economic situation, (2) labour market (remunerations and employment) and (3) investments.
A value within the range of 0-100 is assigned to each component.
The Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers along with Maison&Partners conduct the research among a representative group of small and medium enterprises employing up to 250 people. Busometr ZPP is published every six months.
The survey is carried out since 2011.
14.01.2020 Busometr Index. Forecast for the 1st half of 2020
Fot. Mediamodifier/pixabay.com
