ZPP Newsletter
Warsaw, 9 February 2023
SLIGHTLY BETTER BUSINESS SENTIMENT
The Busometer ZPP for the first half of 2023
Business sentiment for the next six months has improved slightly; however, it remains significantly pessimistic. The overall value of the BUSOMETER sentiment index in companies was 36.4, while the index was 32.4 in the previous research period.
As Cezary Kaźmierczak, the President of the Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers, noticed: “Entrepreneurs are reacting cautiously to the signals coming from the market.” So far, the gloomy scenarios forecasted last year have not materialised; however, there are still no clear signs of recovery. The result is a more optimistic mood, compared to that from the last few readings; however, it is still far from enthusiasm.”
As it was the case in the second quarter of 2022, entrepreneurs positively assess the situation on the labour market (currently 53.1 compared to the previous 51.6).
“This confirms that the labour market in Poland is in a stable and good condition at the moment – there is low unemployment and employers are unlikely to consider downsizing” – noticed Cezary Kaźmierczak commenting on the results of the study.
The value of the sentiment index in the context of the economic situation increased quite significantly (from 27.9 to 35.1). The index can still be described as a “crisis”; however, its increase shows that some entities see prospects of an economic rebound on the horizon in the perspective of the next six months. However, the fact that as many as 58% of entrepreneurs believe that the economic situation will deteriorate further in the coming months cannot be ignored.
The only component of the index that has not increased from the previous study is the investor sentiment index (it is 24.1, as it was six months ago).
As the ZPP President clearly noticed: “There is a certain risk that we will be stuck in persistent and long-term inflation, which will prolong the period of slowdown, and the lack of prospects for recovery from that phase will block investment attempts in the corporate sector.”
METHODOLOGY AND DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY
The Busometer ZPP – the SME Economic Sentiment Index, is an indicator showing the degree of optimism of small and medium-sized enterprises and their planned activities in the perspective of the next six months. The Busometer has been published by the Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers in cooperation with Maison Research House every six mothn since 2011.
The Busometer Index value is influenced by three components:
- the economic situation,
- the labour market (remuneration and employment),
- investment.
The value of each component ranges from 0 to 100. The Busometer scores below 50 indicate pessimistic business sentiment, while scores above 50 indicate optimism.
See: 9.02.2023 Busometr: Prognosis for the first half of 2023
