Warsaw, 9th September 2019
First symptoms of an economic downturn among entrepreneurs: the worst ever disposition towards investment, further optimism on the labour market
The index measuring entrepreneurs’ mood “Busometr” for the second half of 2019 amounted to 48.8 points (a decrease from 55.6 points in the previous half-year), which means that Polish entrepreneurs’ mood is deteriorating. There is still optimistic sentiment in the labour market segment of the index (57.1 points), but we have a complete decline in investments – 35.4. This is the lowest ever result in the history of the survey (since 2011) carried out by the Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers among entrepreneurs from the small and medium-sized enterprises sector.
Entrepreneurs from the manufacturing and trade sectors show the least worries about the economic situation over the next six months (in their case, the index reached 56.9 points and 50.7 points, respectively). On the flipside, entrepreneurs operating in the service sector show rather pessimistic moods (the value of the index here is 45.8 points).
The overall value of the Busometr Index was influenced, among others, by the “economic situation” component, which currently comes to the level of 49 points – a decrease can therefore be observed compared to the previous half-year when the value of the component was 55.2 points. As many as 31% of entrepreneurs expect the economic situation to worsen, whereas 42% assume that there will be no significant changes. The remaining part (27%) believe that the situation will improve.
“These may – but not necessarily – be the first symptoms of an economic downturn,” says Cezary Kaźmierczak, president of the Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers. “Entrepreneurs’ expectations that the economic situation will deteriorate after the boom we experienced are somewhat natural, especially since the mood indices of our neighbours to the West are getting worse. However, I’d like to emphasise that 69% of entrepreneurs claim the economic situation will not change significantly or even improve. It is therefore difficult to talk about fatalistic moods.”
Regardless of the size, region, sector and seniority of the company on the market, the mood of entrepreneurs in the area analysed within the “labour market” component is at an optimistic level (57.1 points). In the case of “remunerations”, the barometer reached 58 points, with 25% of entrepreneurs declaring an increase in remunerations. In terms of “employment”, 22% of respondents plan to increase it.
However, entrepreneurs’ moods are not that optimistic within the “investment component” – the latest reading is 35.4 points (a decrease by 9.6 points in relation to the previous Busometr survey). As many as 43% of respondents declare that they will invest in the next six months, while 57% do not plan any new investments. Small enterprises and those operating within the production sector are most optimistic about activities in this area. Micro-enterprises are far from making investment plans.
Busometr ZPP – the Index of Economic Mood in SME Sector is an economic index showcasing the level of optimism in small and medium enterprises, and their plans for the next six months.
Three components affect the index: (1) the economic situation, (2) labour market (remunerations and employment) and (3) investments.
A value within the range of 0-100 is assigned to each component.
The Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers along with Maison&Partners conduct the research among a representative group of small and medium enterprises (up to 250 employees). Busometr ZPP is published every six months.
The survey is carried out since 2011.